Site Menu



February 2021
S
M
T
W
T
F
S
 123456
78910111213
14151617181920
21222324252627
28      
View Full Calendar


News, Weather & Search

News:
CNN
Google News
BBC News
CBC News

Weather:



Search:
Google






Home > Forum > General Information > Let's Talk About Jesus > The market believes the Fed will cut rates by September

Forum


The market believes the Fed will cut rates by September
Started May 27, 2020 @ 9:31am by xysoom
Post Message 
xysoom


Posts: 447
 
The market believes the Fed will cut rates by SeptemberMay 27, 2020 @ 9:31am
The market believes the Fed will cut rates by September


  The federal reserve is changing direction. In December it predicted that it would raise the federal funds rate twice in 2019, to 2.75-3.0%. In March it thought it would hold rates steady instead. Investors now think there is a one-in-five chance that it will cut rates at its meeting on June 19th, and a 95% chance that it will do so by September (see chart). Jerome Powell, the Feds chairman, has said it is “ready to act”.To get more news about WikiFX, you can visit WikiFX news official website.
The reason for the change is a darkening world economy, caused primarily by the failure of America and China to strike a deal to bring their trade war to an end. Yet for all the ructions, the visible impact on Americas hard economic data has so far been relatively small. True, American firms hired only 75,000 workers in May, on first estimate, well below the recent monthly average. But jobs data are volatile, and the unemployment rate is a very low 3.6%.
  Where the pain of the trade war has shown up is mainly in financial markets. The ten-year Treasury yield, for instance, was 2.5% in early May but has since fallen to 2.1% as investors have rushed to safety and anticipated rate cuts. Large moves like these raise an uncomfortable question for the Fed. Should it yield to the market, thereby risking the appearance that monetary policy is set by traders? Or should it consider only backward-looking economic data, which move slowly?
  Markets provide the aggregated wisdom of a crowd of individuals with money on the line. In most contexts their forecasts will outperform those of a financially disinterested committee, even one made up of experts. But there are other reasons why an apparent discrepancy between the two may endure.
  The first is that there is not really a discrepancy at all. Suppose the Fed and the market make the same judgment about the risk of an economic shock such as a trade war. “The Fed has the luxury of more time,” says Torsten Slok, an economist at Deutsche Bank. It can wait to see what happens before changing policy, whereas investors must hedge their bets immediately to account for even unlikely events.
  The second is that markets agree with the central bank about the economic outlook, but are confused about how it will act. “The Fed might have failed to communicate well,” says Frederic Mishkin, a former rate-setter.
  Only if these possibilities can be ruled out can central bankers conclude that markets are telling them something they need to hear about growth and inflation. Discerning this signal becomes trickier the more the Fed appears to respond to the market. To see why, suppose that the Fed ignores market movements completely, and instead sets policy in an entirely predictable way, responding only to hard data on growth and inflation. Any change in market expectations about Fed policy would then reflect only changes in investors perception of the outlook for those variables. “If Fed policy is clear and systematic,” says Charles Calomiris of Columbia University, “policymakers can glean useful information from markets.” The more the Fed responds to the market, however, the more it is “looking in the mirror”, as Alan Greenspan, a former Fed chairman, supposedly once quipped.
  If monetary policy were entirely automated, however, the information embodied in markets would be useful but unused. What is more, reacting only to real data is like driving while looking only in the rear-view mirror. Central bankers often say that monetary policy works only with a lag of 18 months or two years. Many economists believe that flat-footedness at the Fed has been to blame for numerous post-war American recessions.
  If the Fed wants to glean useful information from markets, it cannot pander to them. “The Fed needs to be the dog that wags the tail,” says Mr Mishkin. But when market movements have a fairly clear cause—in todays case, the trade war—and the reaction is severe, it is likely that a rate cut will eventually be necessary. The short-term risk of moving in anticipation of events is that the outlook brightens and the rate cut then sparks inflation. Yet to the extent that economic data are telling a clear story, it is that inflation is contained. Consumer-price inflation, for example, slowed to 1.8% in May. That suggests it would be better for the Fed to get on with the rate cuts that the market expects.
 
yanmaneee


Posts: 141
 
yanmaneeeOctober 12, 2020 @ 11:51am
yeezys
yeezy shoes
supreme
yeezy boost 350 v2
kd13
adidas yeezy
hermes bags
kd shoes
yeezy shoes
off white clothing
yeezy boost 350
supreme
balenciaga shoes
yeezy boost 350 v2
golden goose shoes
yeezy supply
a bathing ape
paul george shoes
bape hoodie
air jordan
goyard
balenciaga shoes
yeezy boost 350
golden goose sneakers
kyrie 6 shoes
moncler jackets
golden goose sneakers
off white
yeezy boost
supreme new york
cheap jordans
jordans
supreme clothing
yeezy
kawhi leonard shoes
yeezy boost 350
golden goose outlet
moncler jackets
retro jordans
balenciaga
kevin durant shoes
hermes handbags bag
yeezy sneakers
supreme
golden goose
cheap jordans
kobe 11
jordan 11
balenciaga triple s
yeezy boost 350 v2
moncler
jordan shoes
yeezy boost 350
longchamp outlet
air jordan
golden goose
russell westbrook shoes
jordan shoes
yeezy shoes
stephen curry shoes
jordan 13
balenciaga shoes
longchamp
cheap jordans
yeezy
golden goose sneakers
giannis shoes
yeezy boost 350 v2
jordan retro
yeezy
yeezy
yeezy
golden goose
moncler
birkin bag
longchamp bags
supreme clothing
kyrie 6
cheap jordans
yeezy
yeezy boost 350 v2
kd 12
supreme
yeezy shoes
yeezy shoes
golden goose outlet
cheap jordans
birkin bag
supreme clothing
off white hoodie
birkin bag
curry 7 sour patch
golden goose
kobe sneakers
jordans shoes
lebron 17 shoes
longchamp
off white hoodie
lebron james shoes
curry 7 shoes
yeezy shoes
yeezy boost 500
supreme t shirt
golden goose
curry 7
bape hoodie
moncler jackets
yeezy shoes
supreme clothing
bape clothing
nike off white
yeezy boost 700
kobe shoes
kyrie shoes
yeezy supply
moncler
yeezy
supreme new york
jordan shoes
off white shoes
yeezy 700
longchamp handbags
balenciaga
golden goose sneakers
curry 6 shoes
curry 7
chrome hearts outlet
off white
golden goose sneakers
yeezy 700
hermes handbags
moncler jackets
kyrie 6 shoes
kevin durant shoes
yeezy 350
lebron shoes
kyrie 6 shoes
kyrie irving shoes
yeezy 350
moncler outlet
longchamp handbags
jordan shoes
yeezy outlet
hermes handbags
jordans
golden goose sneakers
moncler
yeezy boost 350 v2
golden goose
lebron james shoes
golden goose
supreme new york
golden goose
yeezy boost 350 v2
supreme clothing
air jordans
yeezy boost
lebron 17
offwhite
jordan shoes
balenciaga shoes
golden goose
supreme clothing
bape hoodie
golden goose outlet
adidas yeezy
retro jordans
supreme clothing
ggdb
goyard handbags
chrome hearts online store
off white jordan 1
yeezy boost 350
curry 6 shoes
golden goose sneakers
lebron james shoes
stone island sale
kobe shoes
pg 4
yeezy boost 350 v2
supreme clothing
birkin bag
kd 10
nike shox
golden goose outlet
supreme hoodie
kd13
golden goose
supreme clothing
calvin klein outlet
moncler outlet
supreme hoodie
moncler jackets
stone island outlet
longchamp
yeezy
jordan shoes
kobe byrant shoes
jordans
jordan shoes
nike react
supreme clothing
stone island
nike off white
lebron 16
off white clothing
jordan retro
moncler jacket
yeezy boost
jordan sneakers
curry 7 sour patch
longchamp outlet
golden goose sneakers
curry 6
kd shoes
goyard
yeezys
supreme outlet
yeezy boost 350 v2
kyrie 6
nike x off white
supreme outlet
lebron shoes
yeezy
goyard
yeezy boost 350
yeezys
jordan 4
yeezy 500
golden goose
yeezy
golden goose outlet
kyrie spongebob
goyard handbags
golden goose shoes
air yeezy
balenciaga speed
golden goose
longchamp bags
curry shoes
supreme
yeezy 350 v2
curry 7 shoes
longchamp
giannis antetokounmpo shoes
a bathing ape
balenciaga shoes
supreme hoodie
retro jordans
moncler coat
golden goose sneakers
kyrie 5 shoes
balenciaga
air jordan
cheap jordans
hermes birkin
off white jordan 1
cheap jordans
steph curry shoes
lebron shoes
supreme new york
supreme
off white x jordan 1
yeezy shoes
kyrie shoes
yeezy shoes
stephen curry shoes
off white
yeezy
hermes belt
yeezy boost 350 v2
kyrie 4 shoes
yeezys
supreme
adidsas yeezy
yeezy boost
yeezy shoes
giannis antetokounmpo shoes
jordan shoes
steph curry shoes
balenciaga trainers
lebron 15 shoes
jordan 12
westbrook shoes
hermes online
supreme outlet
supreme clothing
moncler outlet
yeezys
hermes belt
off white shoes
yeezy boost 350 v2
supreme hoodie
yeezy boost
nike lebron 16
curry 6 shoes
supreme
supreme clothing
kd shoes
yeezy boost
golden goose outlet
golden goose
supreme shirt
balenciaga sneakers
goyard
retro jordans
kyrie 5 spongebob
lebron shoes
kyrie 3
jordan shoes
supreme new york
golden goose sneakers
off white nike
yeezy boost 380
balenciaga
golden goose
hermes birkin
curry 6
moncler outlet
kyrie 6
steph curry shoes
jordan shoes
nike shox for men
kd shoes
supreme clothing
kd 13
kyrie 4
nike epic react
jordan shoes
longchamp handbags
air jordan
yeezy 380
moncler
stone island
michael jordan shoes
golden goose outlet
bape clothing
calvin klein underwear
hermes handbags
moncler outlet
supreme hoodie
hermes belts for men
jordan 1 off white
kd 12 shoes
kyrie 5
kobe shoes
yeezy
supreme
moncler
curry 6
kyrie irving shoes
longchamps
kd 12
lebron 15
giannis shoes
jordan shoes
balenciaga
yeezy 350
moncler sale
adidas yeezy
supreme t shirt
off white nike
jordan shoes
yeezy supply
supreme hoodie
golden goose sneakers
cheap jordans
hermes
supreme clothing
supreme clothing
longchamp
goyard handbags
off white clothing
supreme clothing
balenciaga shoes
kd shoes
golden goose
hermes
kobe 9
longchamp handbags
100% real jordans for cheap
moncler
golden goose
curry 7
golden goose
yeezy
supreme clothing
off white shoes
golden goose sale
yeezy boost 350
jordan 6
kobe basketball shoes
golden goose outlet
yeezy boost 350
 

Post Message 



2003-2013, GNI. All Rights Reserved.

Processing Time: 1.54872 seconds.
 
Management Login

Powered By FlexCMS
Powered By FlexCMS